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Forecasting tornadogenesis remains a difficult problem in meteorology, especially for short-lived, predominantly nonsupercellular tornadic storms embedded within mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This study compares populations of tornadic nonsupercellular MCS storm cells with their nontornadic counterparts, focusing on nontornadic storms that have similar radar characteristics to tornadic storms. Comparisons of single-polarization radar variables during storm lifetimes show that median values of low-level, midlevel, and column-maximum azimuthal shear, as well as low-level radial divergence, enable the highest degree of separation between tornadic and nontornadic storms. Focusing on low-level azimuthal shear values, null storms were randomly selected such that the distribution of null low-level azimuthal shear values matched the distribution of tornadic values. After isolating the null cases from the nontornadic population, signatures emerge in single-polarization data that enable discrimination between nontornadic and tornadic storms. In comparison, dual-polarization variables show little deviation between storm types. Tornadic storms both at tornadogenesis and at a 20-min lead time show collocation of the primary storm updraft with enhanced near-surface rotation and convergence, facilitating the nonmesocyclonic tornadogenesis processes.

 

The graph convolutional network (GCN) is a go-to solution for machine learning on graphs, but its training is notoriously difficult to scale both in terms of graph size and the number of model parameters. Although some work has explored training on large-scale graphs, we pioneer efficient training of large-scale GCN models with the proposal of a novel, distributed training framework, called . disjointly partitions the parameters of a GCN model into several, smaller sub-GCNs that are trained independently and in parallel. Compatible with all GCN architectures and existing sampling techniques, (i) improves model performance, (ii) scales to training on arbitrarily large graphs, (iii) decreases wall-clock training time, and (iv) enables the training of markedly overparameterized GCN models. Remarkably, with , we train an astonishgly-wide 32–768-dimensional GraphSAGE model, which exceeds the capacity of a single GPU by a factor of$$8\times $$$8\times$, to SOTA performance on the Amazon2M dataset.

 

Abstract Flies have an open circulatory system and their Blood Brain Barrier (BBB) surrounds the brain like a tight cap. The fly BBB consists of two layers of glial cells. The outer layer is formed by the Perineurial Glia (PG). The inner BBB layer consists of the Subperineurial Glia (SPG) that form the tight barrier that, like its mammalian counterpart, acts both as a diffusion and a xenobiotic transport barrier. Underneath the SPG lie the neuronal cell bodies. The Drosophila BBB shows the same barrier properties as the mammalian barrier and profiling of Drosophila BBB cells has shown a high degree of molecular conservation. We have previously shown that the Drosophila BBB plays a sex-specific role in regulating behavior. Conditional adult feminization of SPG cells in otherwise normal males leads to significantly reduced courtship. In agreement with this, in a microarray screen of isolated SPG cells, we identified a number of male-enriched transcripts. One of them encodes the dopamine-2 like receptor (D2R). We have found that conditional knockdown of D2R in adult male Drosophila SPG decreases courtship. Likewise, D2R mutant males have courtship defects. They can be rescued by expression of wildtype D2R in the SPG cells of mature adult males, demonstrating a physiological requirement for the receptor in these cells for courtship control4. The D2R receptor is highly conserved. It has been found that it can act via biased signaling (through G protein or b-arrestin) in mammals. We have previously found that signaling through Gao and arrestin in the BBB is required for proper male courtship. Although D2R is best known for signaling through cAMP, we have not found a requirement for cAMP/PKA signaling for courtship. To investigate the signaling pathways downstream of D2R that are responsible for courtship control we have mutagenized D2R proteins and examined their ability to rescue D2R mutants. Based on Peterson et al. we designed proteins capable of G-protein or arrestin biased signaling, respectively, and tested their ability to rescue the courtship defects of D2R mutants. Our data suggest that D2R signaling through b-arrestin is a major mediator of BBB courtship control. 

Supercell storms are commonly responsible for severe hail, which is the costliest severe storm hazard in the United States and elsewhere. Radar observations of such storms are common and have been leveraged to estimate hail size and severe hail occurrence. However, many established relationships between radar-observed storm characteristics and severe hail occurrence have been found using data from few storms and in isolation from other radar metrics. This study leverages a 10-yr record of polarimetric Doppler radar observations in the United States to evaluate and compare radar observations of thousands of severe hail–producing supercells based on their maximum hail size. In agreement with prior studies, it is found that increasing hail size relates to increasing volume of high (≥50 dBZ) radar reflectivity, increasing midaltitude mesocyclone rotation (azimuthal shear), increasing storm-top divergence, and decreased differential reflectivity and copolar correlation coefficient at low levels (mostly below the environmental 0°C level). New insights include increasing vertical alignment of the storm mesocyclone with increasing hail size and a Doppler velocity spectrum width minimum aloft near storm center that increases in area with increasing hail size and is argued to indicate increasing updraft width. To complement the extensive radar analysis, near-storm environments from reanalyses are compared and indicate that the greatest environmental differences exist in the middle troposphere (within the hail growth region), especially the wind speed perpendicular to storm motion. Recommendations are given for future improvements to radar-based hail-size estimation.

 

Many studies have aimed to identify novel storm characteristics that are indicative of current or future severe weather potential using a combination of ground-based radar observations and severe reports. However, this is often done on a small scale using limited case studies on the order of tens to hundreds of storms due to how time-intensive this process is. Herein, we introduce the GridRad-Severe dataset, a database including ∼100 severe weather days per year and upward of 1.3 million objectively tracked storms from 2010 to 2019. Composite radar volumes spanning objectively determined, report-centered domains are created for each selected day using the GridRad compositing technique, with dates objectively determined using report thresholds defined to capture the highest-end severe weather days from each year, evenly distributed across all severe report types (tornadoes, severe hail, and severe wind). Spatiotemporal domain bounds for each event are objectively determined to encompass both the majority of reports and the time of convection initiation. Severe weather reports are matched to storms that are objectively tracked using the radar data, so the evolution of the storm cells and their severe weather production can be evaluated. Herein, we apply storm mode (single-cell, multicell, or mesoscale convective system storms) and right-moving supercell classification techniques to the dataset, and revisit various questions about severe storms and their bulk characteristics posed and evaluated in past work. Additional applications of this dataset are reviewed for possible future studies.

 

The quantification of storm updrafts remains unavailable for operational forecasting despite their inherent importance to convection and its associated severe weather hazards. Updraft proxies, like overshooting top area from satellite images, have been linked to severe weather hazards but only relate to a limited portion of the total storm updraft. This study investigates if a machine learning model, namely, U-Nets, can skillfully retrieve maximum vertical velocity and its areal extent from three-dimensional gridded radar reflectivity alone. The machine learning model is trained using simulated radar reflectivity and vertical velocity from the National Severe Storm Laboratory’s convection permitting Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). A parametric regression technique using the sinh–arcsinh–normal distribution is adapted to run with U-Nets, allowing for both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of maximum vertical velocity. The best models after hyperparameter search provided less than 50% root mean squared error, a coefficient of determination greater than 0.65, and an intersection over union (IoU) of more than 0.45 on the independent test set composed of WoFS data. Beyond the WoFS analysis, a case study was conducted using real radar data and corresponding dual-Doppler analyses of vertical velocity within a supercell. The U-Net consistently underestimates the dual-Doppler updraft speed estimates by 50%. Meanwhile, the area of the 5 and 10 m s⁻¹updraft cores shows an IoU of 0.25. While the above statistics are not exceptional, the machine learning model enables quick distillation of 3D radar data that is related to the maximum vertical velocity, which could be useful in assessing a storm’s severe potential.

All convective storm hazards (tornadoes, hail, heavy rain, straight line winds) can be related to a storm’s updraft. Yet, there is no direct measurement of updraft speed or area available for forecasters to make their warning decisions from. This paper addresses the lack of observational data by providing a machine learning solution that skillfully estimates the maximum updraft speed within storms from only the radar reflectivity 3D structure. After further vetting the machine learning solutions on additional real-world examples, the estimated storm updrafts will hopefully provide forecasters with an added tool to help diagnose a storm’s hazard potential more accurately.

 

Increased wildfire events constitute a significant threat to life and property in the United States. Wildfire impact on severe storms and weather hazards is another pathway that threatens society, and our understanding of which is very limited. Here, we use unique modeling developments to explore the effects of wildfires in the western US (mainly California and Oregon) on precipitation and hail in the central US. We find that the western US wildfires notably increase the occurrences of heavy precipitation rates by 38% and significant severe hail (≥2 in.) by 34% in the central United States. Both heat and aerosols from wildfires play an important role. By enhancing surface high pressure and increasing westerly and southwesterly winds, wildfires in the western United States produce ( 1 ) stronger moisture and aerosol transport to the central United States and ( 2 ) larger wind shear and storm-relative helicity in the central United States. Both the meteorological environment more conducive to severe convective storms and increased aerosols contribute to the enhancements of heavy precipitation rates and large hail. Moreover, the local wildfires in the central US also enhance the severity of storms, but their impact is notably smaller than the impact of remote wildfires in California and Oregon because of the lessened severity of the local wildfires. As wildfires are projected to be more frequent and severe in a warmer climate, the influence of wildfires on severe weather in downwind regions may become increasingly important. 

Geostationary satellite imagers provide historical and near-real-time observations of cloud-top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) estimated maximum expected size of hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are made where satellites observe cold clouds, indicative of convection, located in favorable storm environments. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between nonsevere and severe hailstorm classes for predictors that include overshooting cloud-top temperature and area characteristics, vertical wind shear, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a likelihood estimate with a critical success index of 0.511 and Heidke skill score of 0.407, which is exceptional among analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-yr Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) image database fromGOES-12/13to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the central Great Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied.

 

Muscle tissue drives nearly all movement in the animal kingdom, providing power, mobility, and dexterity. Technologies for measuring muscle tissue motion, such as sonomicrometry, fluoromicrometry, and ultrasound, have significantly advanced our understanding of biomechanics. Yet, the field lacks the ability to monitor muscle tissue motion for animal behavior outside the lab. Towards addressing this issue, we previously introduced magnetomicrometry, a method that uses magnetic beads to wirelessly monitor muscle tissue length changes, and we validated magnetomicrometry via tightly-controlled in situ testing. In this study we validate the accuracy of magnetomicrometry against fluoromicrometry during untethered running in an in vivo turkey model. We demonstrate real-time muscle tissue length tracking of the freely-moving turkeys executing various motor activities, including ramp ascent and descent, vertical ascent and descent, and free roaming movement. Given the demonstrated capacity of magnetomicrometry to track muscle movement in untethered animals, we feel that this technique will enable new scientific explorations and an improved understanding of muscle function.